Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

The heuristics and biases framework generated a torrent of influential research in psychology - research that reverberated widely and affected scholarship in economics, management, medicine, law, and political science. The study of human judgment was transformed in the 1970s, when Kahneman and Tversky introduced their 'heuristics and biases' approach and challenged the dominance of strictly rational models.

Their work highlighted the reflexive mental operations used to make complex problems manageable and illuminated how the same processes can lead to both accurate and dangerously flawed judgments. This book, first published in 2002, examines how people make such judgments. This book compiles the most influential research in the heuristics and biases tradition since the initial collection of 1982 by Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky.

Is our case strong enough to go to trial? will interest rates go up? Can I trust this person? Such questions - and the judgments required to answer them - are woven into the fabric of everyday experience.

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them. The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, medical, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, and political situations as well.

Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, medical diagnosis, overconfidence, risk perception, multistage inference, social perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book.

Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies.

Choices, Values, and Frames

While remaining within a rational choice framework, prospect theory delivers more accurate, empirically verified predictions in key test cases, as well as helping to explain many complex, real-world puzzles. In this volume, it is brought to bear on phenomena as diverse as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days.

Building on the 1982 volume, including the work of the late Amos Tversky, and psychologists, Judgement Under Uncertainty, this book brings together seminal papers on prospect theory from economists, decision theorists, whose contributions are collected here for the first time. Theoretically elegant and empirically robust, this volume shows how prospect theory has matured into a new science of decision making.

This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice.

How We Know What Isn't So: Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life

In a rapidly changing world, the biases and stereotypes that help us process an overload of complex information inevitably distort what we would like to believe is reality. Awareness of our propensity to make these systematic errors, Gilovich argues, is the first step to more effective analysis and action.

. Thomas gilovich offers a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. When can we trust what we believe—that "teams and players have winning streaks, " that "flattery works, " or that "the more people who agree, the more likely they are to be right"—and when are such beliefs suspect? Thomas Gilovich offers a guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life.

Illustrating his points with examples, he documents the cognitive, and motivational processes that distort our thoughts, and supporting them with the latest research findings, social, beliefs, judgments and decisions.

Well-Being: Foundations of Hedonic Psychology

The contributors deploy an array of methods, from the surveys and questionnaires of social science to psychological and physiological experiments, to develop a comprehensive new approach to the study of well-being. With contributions from leading authorities in psychology, social psychology, this volume presents the definitive account of current scientific efforts to understand human pleasure and pain, and neuroscience, contentment and despair.

Among its wide ranging inquiries, well-being examines systematic differences in moods and behaviors between genders, explaining why women suffer higher rates of depression and anxiety than men, but are also more inclined to express positive emotions. The nature of well-being is one of the most enduring and elusive subjects of human inquiry.

Why do we grow accustomed and desensitized to changes in our lives, the book also sheds light on some of the more extreme examples of attraction and aversion, both good and bad? Does our happiness reflect the circumstances of our lives or is it determined by our temperament and personality? Why do humans acquire tastes for sensations that are initially painful or unpleasant? By examining the roots of our everyday likes and dislikes, such as addiction and depression.

The distinguished contributors to this volume combine a rigorous analysis of human sensations, from heredity to nationality, emotions, and moods with a broad assessment of the many factors, that bear on our well-being. Using the tools of experimental science, the contributors confront the puzzles of human likes and dislikes.

Well-being draws upon the latest scientific research to transform our understanding of this ancient question. The book also makes international comparisons, finding that some countries' populations report higher levels of happiness than others.

Thinking, Fast and Slow

System 1 is fast, more deliberative, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, and more logical. Winner of the national academy of sciences best book award and the los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions.

Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. Major new york times bestsellerwinner of the national academy of sciences best book award in 2012selected by the new york times book review as one of the ten best books of 2011a globe and mail best books of the year 2011 titleOne of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 20112013 Presidential Medal of Freedom RecipientKahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our MindsIn the international bestseller, Thinking, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think.


Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics

In other words, we misbehave. Thaler has spent his career studying the radical notion that the central agents in the economy are humans—predictable, error-prone individuals. Whether buying a clock radio, selling basketball tickets, or applying for a mortgage, we all succumb to biases and make decisions that deviate from the standards of rationality assumed by economists.

When economics meets psychology, managers, the implications for individuals, and policy makers are both profound and entertaining. Shortlisted for the financial Times & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award. Dismissed at first by economists as an amusing sideshow, the study of human miscalculations and their effects on markets now drives efforts to make better decisions in our lives, our businesses, and our governments.

Coupling recent discoveries in human psychology with a practical understanding of incentives and market behavior, Thaler enlightens readers about how to make smarter decisions in an increasingly mystifying world. Early in his research, Thaler realized these Spock-like automatons were nothing like real people.

He reveals how behavioral economic analysis opens up new ways to look at everything from household finance to assigning faculty offices in a new building, to TV game shows, the NFL draft, and businesses like Uber. Laced with antic stories of thaler’s spirited battles with the bastions of traditional economic thinking, Misbehaving is a singular look into profound human foibles.

More importantly, our misbehavior has serious consequences. Misbehaving is his arresting, frequently hilarious account of the struggle to bring an academic discipline back down to earth—and change the way we think about economics, ourselves, and our world.

Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions

Behavioral economist and new york Times bestselling author Dan Ariely offers a much-needed take on the irrational decisions that led to our current economic crisis.

Critical Thinking: Statistical Reasoning and Intuitive Judgment

From the courtroom to the basketball court, Liberman and Tversky explore the fundamental insights of probability, causal relationships, cholesterol count to the existence of the supernatural, and making inferences from samples. They delve into the psychology of judgment, explaining why first impressions are often wrong and correct answers go against our intuitions.

. We do not know whether it will rain, whether our unhealthy eating choices will have serious consequences, whether the market will go up or down, or whether terrorists will strike our city. Originally written in hebrew and published by the Open University in 1996, Critical Thinking is an essential guide for students and interested readers alike that teaches us to become more critical readers and consumers of information.

To make matters worse, we also lack a tried and true procedure for evaluating the likelihood of such events. Life is fundamentally uncertain. Yet we are required to make decisions great and small that depend on these events. Using everyday examples, they detail how to examine data and their implications with the goal of helping readers improve their intuitive reasoning and judgment.

In the absence of certainty or an objective procedure for estimating probabilities, we must rely on our own reasoning, which a great deal of research has shown to be less rational than we would like to believe. In critical thinking, varda liberman and Amos Tversky examine how we make judgments under uncertainty and explain how various biases can distort our consideration of evidence.


Preference, Belief, and Similarity: Selected Writings Bradford Books A Bradford Book

This book collects forty of Tversky's articles, selected by him in collaboration with the editor during the last months of Tversky's life. The preferences section is subdivided into Probabilistic Models of Choice, Choice under Risk and Uncertainty, and Contingent Preferences. He created new areas of study and helped transform disciplines as varied as economics, philosophy, law, medicine, political science, and statistics.

Amos tversky 1937–1996, a towering figure in cognitive and mathematical psychology, judgment, devoted his professional life to the study of similarity, and decision making. He had a unique ability to master the technicalities of normative ideals and then to intuit and demonstrate experimentally their systematic violation due to the vagaries and consequences of human information processing.

Included are several articles written with his frequent collaborator, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman. It is divided into three sections: Similarity, Judgment, and Preferences.

BIASES and HEURISTICS : The Complete Collection of Cognitive Biases and Heuristics That Impair Decisions in Banking, Finance and Everything Else The Psychology of Economic Decisions Book 7

Powerful hidden Forces Impair Our Decisions. In this book you learn about powerful biases which afflict the world of business and banking. Understanding how biases work Bias-in-Action can help avoid these biases, and at times even use the presence of biases in our competitors to our advantage. Q: what kind of techniques will i get to learn in this book? A: This is a comprehensive collection of all empirically proven cognitive biases that impair our decisions.

In this book i bring out the most powerful cognitive biases that impair judgment. Here is a comprehensive collection of these hidden forcesare you a manager in the financial services sector, and wish to avoid a situation like the recent financial crisis? Do you know that all of us have mental blind spots which prevent us from being rational?If you have seen or read about the recent financial crisis that straddled across the globe and brought down some of the oldest and most venerated financial institutions in the world, then you need this book!In this book I share authentic research findings on cognitive biases and how they impact our judgment.

Every day that you delay is another day that you stagnate in your growth as a manager-leader. Take action now and buy this book by clicking the 'Buy now with 1-click' button. Some experience in the financial sector or knowledge of basic economics can make the grasping faster, but it is not a prerequisite.

You will also get to learn about more biases that impair decisions in business and banking. Q: do i need to have prior qualifications before I read this book? A: The only thing that is required is your keenness to learn. These are powerful biases that you must avoid in order to succeed.